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What could save the Nationals is Darren Chester as he is very popular although if the One Nation momentum is still there in 2028 he might not be able to withstand it.
The big risk for the Nats is that Darren Chester doesn’t recontest in 2028. He will be 60 and would have been MP for 20 years. Assuming he runs again, he would seem hard to dislodge unless the ON vote was well upside of 40% or there was total NP collapse so that the Nats ended up behind a combined Labor plus Greens vote.
If today’s redbridge poll is anything to go by the Nats will be wiped off the map and the Liberals will be in a battle to stay in the 2CP in most outer/middle suburban seats
Redbridge points to a wipeout of pretty much all Nats and rural Libs. I think that MPs with strong personal brands and local popularity can have a real fighting chance.
The Latrobe Valley has a high One Nation vote owing to deindustrialisation in a former blue-collar heartland and a declining Labor vote. The danger for Darren Chester is that rural, normally Nationals strongholds and small towns swing strongly to One Nation like in Farrer.